CVM will initially restrict the event trading to professional investors with assets of more than R$10 million. B3 will initially offer binary options including “yes” or “no” scenarios on the dollar, Ibovespa and bitcoin.
“The world of derivatives is increasingly approaching the frontier of the predictive market,” B3 President Gilson Finkelsztain said in an interview with Valor.
Brazil prediction markets grey area
The CVM regulation keeps B3 under securities rather than Brazil’s sports betting framework. Brazilian online gambling launched last year under the Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Prizes and Bets.
While this is the first federally approved prediction market, there are other options in Brazil, according to BNL.
And like the US, there is disagreement over regulation of the prediction markets. Along with the CVM, they could fall under the Central Bank or the Ministry of Finance. There are already other operators offering futures markets in a regulatory grey area, like Previas and Palpitada. Futuriza announced a launch in March, offering Brazilians options on political, economic, sports and entertainment markets.
Major prediction markets with their feet in the US have not ventured to Brazil. Kalshi, however, is potentially looking to launch in Brazil this year.
Are Brazil prediction markets headed for US-like situation?
In the US, prediction market operators are operating under the purview of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Under that regulation, the operators contend they can offer event trading nationwide.
However, state gambling regulators have taken issue with the markets, particularly sports event trades. There are more than 20 lawsuits pending involving prediction market operators, primarily Kalshi. As the lawsuits work their way through the court system, some state legislatures are also looking at potential prohibition or regulation of the prediction markets. However, those laws would likely carry minimal weight until a Supreme Court ruling settles the issue.
Kalshi is fighting state bodies that argue sports event trades are circumventing state gambling laws. Kalshi said its CFTC regulation preempts state laws and regulations. Multiple judges have ruled in favor of the state regulators as the cases work their way through the court system, including in Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York.
This week, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favor of the Nevada Gaming Control Board, allowing it to ban Kalshi from offering sports contracts in Nevada. Approximately 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume is on sports. The appellate court backed a judge’s ruling from November.
Kalshi did secure a victory in California, where tribes argue the operator is violating the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. In November, a judge ruled in that case that the CFTC’s regulation of event markets means the event contracts are not bets and therefore do not violate IGRA.
New CFTC Chair Michael Selig announced recently the commission will back prediction markets in court this week.
Dingnews.com 23/02/2026