Bally’s recently published a 10-Q filing with the SEC, in which it expressed doubts over its ability to continue as a going concern. Jordan Bender and Isabelle Slavin of Citizens have in part ratified those doubts, claiming that the operator’s current pipeline is ambitious.
That pipeline includes the opening of a downstate casino in New York in 2030, a Chicago project set for early 2027, and a Las Vegas development.
The analysts said: “The situation does not appear dire, and the company reiterated that it is working to secure outside funding for New York, but we do not believe the company has the ability to finish all of its projects without selling or bringing in a development partner at its current leverage levels.”
According to the note seen by NEXT.io, Las Vegas would be the most likely asset either to be sold or to require a partner to be brought in.
However, a separate note from Macquarie described the bank as being “constructive on the underlying asset base.”
Analysts Chad Beynon, Aaron Lee and Sam Ghafir have described Bally’s Chicago, NYC and Las Vegas projects as attractive, despite the doubts raised by Bally’s itself.
Las Vegas
The Las Vegas development refers to the rights to develop land at the site of the former Tropicana Las Vegas.
And on that project, there is a clue present in Bally’s own communications that may point to Citizen’s predicted outcome being the most likely.
Where previous Bally’s updates referred to a casino being on the site, more recently, the operator has only referred to “non-gaming amenities.”
Conversely, it could be renewed financing on the New York project that reassures investors and eliminates the discussion of Bally’s continuation as a going concern.
Barry Jonas, MD of Truist, expressed this view in another report seen by NEXT.io, while adding that the ‘going concern’ language is still “not a good look and is rarely seen across our coverage.”
Ratings
Jonas reiterated Truist’s ‘hold’ rating, while Citizens is maintaining its current “market perform” rating, also suggesting that investors hold the line.
Both have resisted giving a call to sell, citing potential stock volatility in both directions.
Bender and Slavin wrote: “Moving pieces and project openings, along with ongoing cost-saving initiatives and a lack of guidance, create some level of uncertainty for estimates over the coming years.”
They consider the current shares multiple of 7.2x consensus 2027E EBITDA estimates to be fair value.
Citizens has nonetheless adjusted its 2026-2027 EBITDAR estimates – where the bank previously forecast a range of $793m to $882m, it has now marked that down to $751m to $829m.
Macquarie has also maintained a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock, though the analysts lowered their target price from $13 to $11, indicating a position on the bearish side of neutral.
The bank also highlighted some positive signals, including “a non-binding Investment Fundamentals term sheet for a pre-construction loan and a LOI [Letter of Intent] with a potential equity investor for the NYC project.”
It seems they share some of Bally’s management’s confidence that it could yet raise the capital it needs to dispel doubts.
Bally’s doubts
Bally’s share price has fallen 34% in the past month. Since the company’s Q2 results, the price plummeted, recovered slightly before today falling 9%.
Bally’s Intralot’s adjusted EBITDA was down from €100.2m in Q1 to €84.6m in Q2, a fall attributed by the operator to tax hikes in the UK.
The alarming 10-Q was filed separately, but likely had the most significant effect on investor confidence.
It explained that the company’s level of liquidity may not, according to its own forecasts, be sufficient to satisfy the terms of its revolving credit facility.
Compliance with these terms was temporarily and conditionally waived until March 2027, and Bally’s is now exploring financing alternatives to navigate the perilous situation.
The 10-Q explained that while these explorations are ongoing, “the conditions and events raise substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.”
Dingnews.com 28/08/2026