Allies of Flávio Bolsonaro in Congress are behind 30 of the 35 pro-betting edits proposed to MP 1.394/2026, the provisional measure (MP) banning betting in Brazil.
Yesterday, 13 October, marked the deadline for lawmakers to file amendments.
Of the 97 amendments filed, up from 42 counted earlier this month, 35 are pro-betting edits that would soften or reverse the ban. Another 25 would tighten it, while 37 are neutral.
Thirty of the pro-betting edits come from lawmakers in PL and PP.
Both parties are backing Bolsonaro, who won the first round of the presidential election with 47% of valid votes, in the 25 October runoff against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Most pro-betting amendments follow the same line: ban online casino games such as the “Tigrinho”, but keep sports betting.
That mirrors Bolsonaro’s own position. He says he personally opposes gambling, but has promised to end online casinos while keeping sports betting, arguing that “the problem is the online casino”.
The MP, signed and published by Lula on 25 September, bans all fixed-odds betting. It gave operators 10 days to go offline and extinguishes all licences as of 25 October, with no refund of licence fees.
The pro-betting edits matter because the rapporteur can fold accepted amendments into a conversion bill that replaces the MP’s text.
If both houses approve it, Lula has 15 working days to sign or veto it in whole or in part, and Congress can override a veto.
At stake is whether Brazil keeps a regulated betting market at all.
Pro-betting amendments political map
PL and PP account for 30 of the 35 pro-betting edits. All seven PP authors filed at least one, and Capitão Alden (PL-BA) filed 11, more than any other lawmaker. Mauricio Neves (PP-SP) filed four, including a full rewrite of the MP that would restore the licensed regime.
The remaining five pro-betting edits come from Marcos Braz (PSDB), Jorge Kajuru (PSB) and Romário (no party). Kajuru is the only centre-left author, and no left-wing party filed a pro-betting edit.
The 35 pro-betting edits
|
Amendments |
Author |
Party-State |
Political placement |
Proposal |
|
79 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Reverses the licence extinctions; licences return with no new fee, extended by the blackout period |
|
69 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Licences stay valid without interruption to the end of their term |
|
53 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Bans only unlicensed operators; existing licences run to the end of their term; revoked licences restored back to 25 Sep; wind-down rules (Arts. 5–13) removed; ad ban for unlicensed operators only |
|
52 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Strikes most of the MP; allows sports betting (mostly adult athletes) and online games with “safe design” rules; deletes the forfeiture rule (Art. 21-A) |
|
51 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Bans only unlicensed operators; keeps sports betting and online games, including live-studio games |
|
73 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
“Safe design” rules for online games, with at least 180 days to adapt while games stay authorised |
|
72 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Online casino ads allowed for licensed operators: 9pm–6am on TV and radio, age-gated online |
|
70 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Government can restrict individual games, but banning a whole category requires a law |
|
66 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Pro-rata refund of licence fees |
|
50 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Exempts content produced before the MP that carries betting ads |
|
41 |
Capitão Alden |
PL-BA |
Right / far right |
Any ban or licence extinction must first have a fiscal impact estimate and a regulatory impact analysis |
|
15 |
Astronauta Marcos Pontes |
PL-SP |
Right / far right |
Online casino banned; sports betting restored; federal licences return with no new fee, extended by the blackout period; no sanctions for the shutdown; shirt sponsorship allowed; new ad rules phased in over 90 days |
|
64 |
Mauricio Neves |
PP-SP |
Right (Centrão) |
Full rewrite of the MP restoring the licensed regime under Law 14.790 |
|
61 |
Mauricio Neves |
PP-SP |
Right (Centrão) |
Deletes Art. 29, keeping Law 14.790 in force; adds a responsible-gambling module |
|
62 |
Mauricio Neves |
PP-SP |
Right (Centrão) |
Deletes Art. 29; creates licences for B2B suppliers (R$100k–15m, three years) |
|
63 |
Mauricio Neves |
PP-SP |
Right (Centrão) |
Preserves state licences and voids their extinction |
|
59 |
Bebeto |
PP-RJ |
Right (Centrão) |
Removes the ban and the payment ban; restores federal and state licences; ad ban for unlicensed operators only |
|
43 |
Bebeto |
PP-RJ |
Right (Centrão) |
Blocks and ad bans apply only to unauthorised operators |
|
44 |
Bebeto |
PP-RJ |
Right (Centrão) |
Bonuses and free spins left out of taxable GGR |
|
45 |
Bebeto |
PP-RJ |
Right (Centrão) |
Ad ban for unlicensed operators only; deletes Art. 29, which repealed Law 14.790; adds a naming-rights ban and limits on content that appeals to children |
|
46 |
Bebeto |
PP-RJ |
Right (Centrão) |
Same text as 45 amendment |
|
12 |
Pedro Aihara |
PP-MG |
Right (Centrão) |
Slots-only ban; licence extinction (Arts. 4–6) removed |
|
14 |
Pedro Aihara |
PP-MG |
Right (Centrão) |
Slots-only ban; licence extinction (Arts. 4–6) removed |
|
16 |
Julio Lopes |
PP-RJ |
Right (Centrão) |
Slots-only ban; licence extinction (Chapter II) removed |
|
17 |
Julio Lopes |
PP-RJ |
Right (Centrão) |
Exempts content published before the MP that carries authorised betting ads |
|
38 |
Dr. Hiran |
PP-RR |
Right (Centrão) |
Sports betting only; shirt sponsorship allowed; radio and TV ads allowed without people or AI avatars |
|
28 |
Julio Arcoverde |
PP-PI |
Right (Centrão) |
Bans only unlicensed operators; keeps sports betting and online games, including live-studio games |
|
29 |
Julio Arcoverde |
PP-PI |
Right (Centrão) |
Deletes the clause that bars refunds and compensation for revoked licences |
|
30 |
Julio Arcoverde |
PP-PI |
Right (Centrão) |
“Litígio Zero Bets”: a tax and currency amnesty for operators, applied for within 90 days |
|
77 |
Átila Lira |
PP-PI |
Right (Centrão) |
Licences stay valid to the end of their term (same text as amendment 69) |
|
10 |
Marcos Braz |
PSDB-RJ |
Centre-right |
Bans slots and prop bets (cards, corners); keeps sports bets on final results, scores and team-level stats |
|
11 |
Marcos Braz |
PSDB-RJ |
Centre-right |
Existing sponsorship branding stays on shirts and in stadiums until the end of the season, or for up to 24 months |
|
18 |
Jorge Kajuru |
PSB-GO |
Centre-left |
Pro-rata refund of the licence fee for the remaining licence period, adjusted by Selic |
|
20 |
Jorge Kajuru |
PSB-GO |
Centre-left |
Slots-only ban; licence extinction (Chapter II) removed |
|
55 |
Romário |
No party-RJ |
No party |
Allows only bets on the final result and the final score |
On the opposing side, MDB lawmakers filed proposals to tighten the ban, including prison sentences for illegal operators. Senator Sargento Reginauro (PSDB-CE) filed 14 restrictive amendments.
Most are written as “if betting is authorised again”, but set out strict rules in case Congress reopens the market.
Neutral on paper, pro-market in practice
Of the 37 neutral amendments, 13 lean towards the industry. They don’t soften the ban directly, but they assume a regulated market will keep running, or they limit how the ban is enforced. Ten of the 13 come from PL and PP.
Julio Arcoverde (PP-PI) has proposed session alerts, mandatory breaks and a ban on manipulative design: rules for a market that stays open, not one that has been shut down.
Átila Lira (PP-PI) rewrites how betting revenue is shared out, although his version would raise the GGR tax from 12% to 15% by 2028.
Others would narrow enforcement. Rodrigo Valadares (PL-SE) and Capitão Alden would limit platforms’ duty of care to paid promotion of betting content and leave sanctions to the courts. Valadares also wants blocking orders to be specific and proportionate.
The football lobby
Several lawmakers with ties to football are among the authors of pro-betting edits. They argue that betting money from sponsorship funds clubs, youth academies, women’s football and Olympic sports.
Senator Romário (pictured), 1994 World Cup winner, has a sponsorship deal with Superbet. He proposes allowing only bets on a match’s final result and final score. It is the most restrictive of the pro-betting edits, but it would still keep a legal sports betting market.
Flamengo-linked lawmakers Marcos Braz (PSDB-RJ) and Julio Lopes (PP-RJ) both want to keep sports betting.
Lopes would limit the ban to slots, arguing that the MP would break contracts that sustain clubs. Braz would allow only bets on final results and give clubs up to 24 months to keep betting sponsors.
Bolsonaro has echoed the argument aligned to them, saying the MP “attacked the clubs” and citing the fact some shops were forced to discard stocks of team jerseys that carry betting sponsors.
An opportunity for prediction markets
Besides the pro-betting recommends, two amendments look beyond betting to prediction markets, with both again coming from Bolsonaro’s party, PL.
Rodrigo Valadares (PL-SE) proposes a narrow exemption. Derivatives tied to economic or financial variables, such as interest rates or inflation, would sit outside the ban, even if they pay out on a yes-or-no outcome.
Capitão Alden (PL-BA) goes much further. His amendment says derivative contracts are not bets “whatever the underlying event” and places them solely under the CVM, Brazil’s securities regulator. The CVM could still ban contracts tied to illegal activity, terrorism, assassination, war or gaming.
In practice, this is a full prediction market carve-out. Contracts on sports results, elections or any other event could be offered under CVM regulation while fixed-odds betting stays banned.
MP’s next steps in Congress
With the window closed, the MP will move through three stages:
Joint Committee: 12 senators and 12 deputies review the 58 amendments, and the rapporteur folds the accepted ones into a conversion bill. This is where the slots-only, sports-only and licensed-only ideas survive or die.
Chamber of Deputies: votes on the MP or the conversion bill; parties can force separate votes on amendments.
Senate: votes the same text; any change goes back to the Chamber.
If an amended text is approved, it goes to Lula to sign or veto. If the MP is rejected, or lapses after 120 days, it loses effect.
The licence extinctions would still stand unless Congress passes a decree on them within 60 days. A decision is not expected before the runoff.
Bolsonaro, who called the MP “populist, hypocritical, electioneering,” has not said how he would vote on it. He has warned that because the measure lasts only four months, “nothing stops the Tigrinho from coming back in full force.”
Meanwhile, three cases at the Supreme Court could suspend the MP at any point. Professional football clubs São Paulo, Flamengo, Fluminense and Botafogo have all joined the legal challenges.
Dingnews.com 15/10/2026