“The better-than-expected GDP growth in the first half has given China room to prioritize consumption and structural reforms to prepare for the beginning of its 15th five-year plan,” said Carlos Siu, Associate Professor of Business Management in the Gaming and Recreation Management unit at Macau Polytechnic University.
The country’s economy grew by a strong 5.3 percent in the first half of 2025, exceeding initial expectations and putting it on track to meet its annual growth targets. However, the major priority for the Chinese government in 2025 is to revive domestic consumption, which was a weak point in the previous year.
China’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) remains near historic lows and has only gradually been recovering, with concerns about employment, economic stability, and especially the ongoing property downturn pushing consumption down.
The Chinese authorities have prioritized boosting household consumption, with a CNY200 billion ($28 billion) program introduced to subsidize designated consumer purchases in 2024, which was further expanded by CNY300 billion ($42 billion) in 2025.
However, Siu added that the country’s authorities are unlikely to roll out broad-based stimulus “unless the outlook deteriorates again,” pointing to another factor that could lift Macau’s economy.
“The recent surge in China’s stock market would foster a wealth effect and boost consumption in tourists’ stay in Macau,” he said.
His comments come as investment banks raise their expectations for the city’s casino revenues. JP Morgan analysts highlighted that August delivered the highest non-Golden Week GGR since the pandemic, supported by peak summer visitation.
In a recent note, Morgan Stanley now forecasts a 15 percent year-on-year increase in market-wide gross gaming revenues (GGR) in the second half of 2025.
The bank is also upbeat about the industry’s outlook, predicting “double-digit GGR growth” in the coming quarters, with momentum expected to continue until the first quarter of 2026.
Siu, however, struck a more cautious tone. “Based on the above, I would be a bit conservative to expect a single-digit growth with the current momentum forecast in the coming quarters,” he said.
Dingnews.com 11/09/2025