And one of the reasons is Kalshi, a platform that operates as an event contract market in the United States and that plans to expand to Brazil throughout this year.
The company's proposal changed the panorama in the North American country by being located in an intermediate area between betting and traditional financial markets. Unlike conventional platforms, Kalshi allows users to negotiate contracts based on the probability of certain events occurring - from economic indicators to political decisions and sports results - forming prices based on the collective perception of the market (prediction markets).
What is a predictive market?
The logic behind these markets is not new. Similar instruments emerged more than a century ago as hedging mechanisms against economic risks, especially in the agricultural sector, and evolved into contracts linked to financial, climatic and macroeconomic variables. Kalshi's differential was to extend this concept to political, sporting and social events, operating under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
In the United States, platforms such as Kalshi are registered as designated contract markets (DCMs). In this model, no prior authorization is required to launch a new contract. The company uses a self-certification process, notifying the regulator at least 48 hours in advance. Then, it is up to the CFTC to decide if the product violates the legislation or if it should be withdrawn. The main legal instrument for this evaluation is the Special Rule, introduced by the Dodd-Frank Act, which restricts contracts linked to gambling, terrorism, war or activities considered illegal.
The interpretation of this provision is the focus of legal disputes in the United States. While state regulators and gambling sector entities maintain that any contract related to online gambling should be automatically prohibited, Kalshi argues that the CFTC must demonstrate, in addition to the thematic framework, that the contract is contrary to the public interest. This interpretation was reinforced after judicial decisions that allowed the company to keep electoral contracts active, even in the face of state laws that prohibit such bets.
The local challenge lies precisely in the absence of an equivalent regulatory category. Today, Brazil clearly separates the derivatives markets from the betting industry, which recently began to have its own rules. Kalshi's prediction markets do not fit perfectly in either of them. For the company, it is a financial product based on probability and price formation, not conventional bets. For regulators and local operators, however, contracts on sports results or political events can be dangerously close to the concept of betting.
In the United States, this confrontation generated a series of lawsuits and cease and desist notifications by state regulators, with contradictory rulings in the courts. There is no final definition yet, and the issue is expected to be resolved only after a review by the Supreme Court. Until then, Kalshi continues to operate in an environment of regulatory uncertainty, betting that innovation comes before consensus.
Kalshi and his plans in Brazil for this 2026
It is in this context where Brazil appears as a strategic market. In an interview with Valor International, Kalshi's co-founder, Brazilian Luana Lopes Lara, said that the company is evaluating ways to operate in the country and pointed out the possibility of an announcement as soon as 2026.
"We are just starting. One of the first things we announced [...] was our international expansion plan. Brazil means a lot to me. I really want us to operate there. We are still studying how to do it, but I hope we can announce something in early 2026," he said.
In Brazil, any movement will depend on careful reading of local legislation and dialogue with regulatory authorities.
"Today there is nothing like Kalshi in Brazil, only betting platforms or derivative markets, which was exactly where the United States was before Kalshi. We want to find a way to take our model to Brazil, using what we learned in the United States. But that will depend on our lawyers and regulatory analysis. Nothing is defined yet," he said.
"We see something similar to the CME, where it is possible to access products from the United States from Brazil. In addition, we want to gradually develop other structures, such as margin and leverage, although that is a longer-term plan. That would help us move towards a more institutional negotiation profile," Lara said.
Dingnews.com 05/01/2026